Posted
on 12/03/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAAF Betting - Champs Sports Bowl Michigan State at Boston College
Dec.
28 -- Champ Sports Bowl Preview at Orlando,
Fla., Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan
State (7-5), 5 p.m. (ESPN)
LAST
POINTSPREAD RESULT: Michigan State
won 35-31 at home against Penn State and
got the cover as the three-point underdog.
Boston College lost to Virginia Tech by a
30-16 score in the ACC title game on December
1, failing to cover as the 4.5-point underdog.
LAST MEETING: These teams last met in 1995,
as Michigan State won 25-21 in lansing.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE :
The Good News -- Michigan State has good
offensive balance, averaging 200 yards rushing
and 226 passing. QB Brian Hoyer was steady
if not spectacular, throwing for 18 touchdowns
while being intercepted only seven times.
The running back duo of Jason Caulcrick and
Javon Ringer had a combined 2157 yards for
the Spartans.
The Bad News -- The defense was suspect,
giving up a shade under 27 points per game.
Opposing offenses only had to gain 13.1 yards
for every point they were able to score.
MICHIGAN STATE TRENDS:
* MSU covered four of its last six games
* MSU has played eight OVERS in its last
nine games
* MSU is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
as an underdog
ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE:
The Good News -- BC quarterback Matt Ryan
was among the very best in the country, and
may be the first QB drafted by the NFL this
year. Ryan threw for 4258 yards this season,
with 28 TD passes. Running back Andre Callendar
was solid, averaging 4.7 yards per carry
to give the Eagles some needed balance. BC
was tough against the run, surrendering just
2.2 yards a carry to opponents.
The Bad News -- Pass defense was not a strength
for the Eagles, as they gave up 268 passing
yards a game. BC was at one point rated #2
in the country, after winning its first eight
games, but after losing to Florida State,
two more defeats - to Maryland and Virginia
Tech - followed, leaving some to question
how good this team really was.
BOSTON COLLEGE TRENDS:
* BC is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
* BC has played five of its last seven games
UNDER the total
* BC has failed to cover its last four games
as a favorite
* BC has won seven straight bowl games SU
* BC has covered six of its last seven bowl
games
THE
BOTTOM LINE: The concern here is that
Boston College seems to have lost interest
a little when they were no longer on target
to reach the BCS title game. There are obviously
positives on the BC side, including the run
defense, which is stingy, and the recent
bowl record, which shows seven straight wins,
with six of those being covers. But the Eagles
did not close strongly, while Michigan State
at least got some momentum and confidence
with wins in the final two games against
Purdue and Penn State. Virginia Tech almost
came up with a sweep of Boston College; they
beat them the second time around by exhibiting
some offensive balance. If Michigan State
can run the ball just well enough to keep
BC's defense honest, it will give Brian Hoyer
an opportunity to exploit a porous pass defense.
We think they'll be able to do that, and
so we're taking Michigan State, the 4.5-point
underdog in the BetUS NCAA football betting
odds.
WHAT: Champs Sports Bowl
WHO: Michigan
State Spartans (7-5 SU & ATS)
vs. Boston College Eagles (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
December 28, 5 PM ET at Florida Citrus
Bowl Stadium in Orlando (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: BOSTON
COLLEGE -4.5, Total: 56
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