Posted
on 12/05/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAA Football Betting - Capital One Bowl Michigan at Florida
Jan.
1 -- Capital One Bowl Preview at Orlando,
Fla., Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida (9-3),
1 p.m. (ABC)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Michigan lost in
its big rivalry game with Ohio State by a
score of 14-3, and was outgained by the embarrassing
margin of 279-91. Florida romped over Florida
State 45-12, easily covering as a 14-point
home favorite.
LAST MEETING: These teams last met on January
1, 2003 in the Outback Bowl. Michigan, the
1.5-point favorite, beat Florida 38-30.
ABOUT MICHIGAN:
The Good News -- The Wolverines responded
after losses to Appalachian State and Oregon
with eight straight wins, in the process
getting back into the national rankings,
before losing the last two to Wisconsin and
Ohio State. Michigan gave up only 23 touchdowns
on defense. And QB Chad Henne and RB Mike
Hart, both of whom lost time with injuries,
should be healthy after resting for a while.
The Bad News -- While Rich Rodriguez has
been hired away from West Virginia to eventually
take the Michigan head coaching job, Lloyd
Carr is lingering around for the bowl game.
ABOUT FLORIDA:
The Good News -- Tim Tebow, the Heisman
winner, threw 29 TD passes and ran for 838
yards and 22 more touchdowns. Percy Harvin
is a tremendous all-around threat, and chalked
up 781 yards receiving. They led a Florida
offense that averaged 43 points a game and
posted 51 ppg in its last four to end the
season. The Gators were tough against the
run, permitting only 99 yards per game.
The Bad News -- Florida could be exploited
by efficient opposition passers. The Gators
gave up 249 passing yards a contest, ranking
them only 86th best in the country.
Here are some college football betting TRENDS
relative to this matchup:
* FLA has covered six of its last seven
games
* FLA has won 16 of its last 19 games SU
* FLA has played six OVERS in its last seven
games
* MICH has covered seven of its last nine
games as an underdog
THE BOTTOM LINE: When Lloyd Carr brought
his team to the Rose Bowl to play USC last
season, the Wolverines looked like they were
operating in quicksand. It would stand to
reason that Carr (4-8 ATS in bowl games)
will once again be roundly out-coached, this
time by Urban Meyer, who has won and covered
his four bowl appearances. Florida came on
like gangbusters offensively toward the end,
and Tebow's versatility should drive Michigan
nuts. UM's Mario Manningham may indeed be
the best receiver on the field, but it should
be noted that in the 91-yard non-effort against
Ohio State, Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Manningham
were all present and accounted for. Florida,
which yielded just three yards a carry to
opponents, can put a halt to Hart and the
Michigan run attack. And there is little
evidence to suggest Henne will follow in
the footsteps of former Maize and Blue signal-caller
Tom Brady.
Capital One Bowl Free Pick:
FLORIDA has the firepower needed to pull
away from this opponent. Lay it with the
Gators, the 11.5-point favorite in the BetUS
college football betting odds.
WHAT: Capital One Bowl
WHO: Michigan Wolverines (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS)
vs. Florida Gators (9-3 SU, 8-3 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
January 1, 1 PM ET at Florida Citrus Bowl
Stadium in Orlando (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: FLORIDA
11.5, Total: 59
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