Posted
on 12/22/2007 10:55 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAAF Bowl Betting - Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos
Preview: The
New Mexico Bowl will kick-off pitching
two teams that basically have the same
decal on their helmets. Can Nevada’s
incredible offense overcome the ineffectiveness
of their defense to stop anyone? Or will
New Mexico thrive in their own backyard?
Nevada Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
Working out of the shotgun, Colin Kaepernick
has whistled the Wolf Pack to a blistering
36.3 points per game while averaging 263.1
yards per game. The New Mexico pass defense
allows 202.4 yards per game, but have not
played any team worthy of note this season.
Nevada and Kaepernick outmatch this sketchy
secondary in a big way, and that has to get
the smart betting investor licking his chops
for an upset.
Behind Kaepernick is running-back Luke Lippincott
who has had a fantastic season. The big back
has carried the ball for 1,380 yards and
15 touchdowns this season and will be deployed
to keep the Lobos defense honest. New Mexico
has a decent rushing defense (129.2 yards
against per game) but they will have to keep
a sharp eye on Lippincott lest he run them
over.
New Mexico Offense vs. Nevada Defense
In order to keep the high-octane offense
of Nevada off the field, the Lobos will unleash
Rodney Ferguson up the middle for much of
the first half. The 226-pound runner lacks
ideal speed, but is difficult to bring down
and can wear down the front-seven of a shoddy
Nevada defense.
Donavan Porterie is a game manager at the
quarterback position and will not be called
upon to try and take this game over. The
Lobos average 222.2 passing yards, but much
of that comes off of big plays that do not
have too often. Nevada will pin the ears
back on their safeties to prevent that from
happening, while swarming their front-seven
to slow down Ferguson from breaking big runs.
NCAAF Betting Trends
-Nevada is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
-total has
gone UNDER in 5 of Nevada’s
last 6 games
-new Mexico is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
-New Mexico is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Final Verdict
New Mexico is simply not dynamic enough
to take the pedal off its rushing attack.
That being said, this game will be a lot
lower in scoring then many people think.
Lippincott and Ferguson will take center
stage. However, the betting investor should
take not of Kaepernick, who is a threat whenever
he throws. The Wolf Pack will be able to
grind Ferguson down, while keeping a slim
lead all the way to a bowl victory and an
upset.
Nevada Wolf Pack (6-6) vs. New Mexico Lobos
(8-4)
Saturday, December 22nd --- University Dome,
Albuquerque --- 4:30pm EST
Opening NCAA Football Line: New Mexico -3.5
(63)
NCAA Football Betting Free Pick: Nevada
28 New Mexico 24
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