Posted
on 10/27/2007 12:50 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting: Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders
Two teams who are not doing too well will
clash on Sunday in the Bay Area when the
Oakland Raiders (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) play
host to the Houston Texans in an NFL inter-divisional
game starting at 4:15 PM ET at the McAfee
Coliseum in Oakland (natural turf). In
the BetUS NFL betting odds, the Raiders
are listed as a three-point favorite, with
the total posted at 42 points.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: Oakland
-3, Total 42
NOTABLE STAT: Oakland - 33 points and
two offensive TD's in last three games
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Oakland has played
three straight unders, and 14 of last 19
under the total
(For more useful
stats and NFL betting trends, check out
our special NFL
Matchup Tool)
The Raiders lost 13-9 to Tennessee on
Sunday as a seven-point underdog, in a
game that went under the 39-point total.
Houston committed a slew of mistakes and
trailed 35-3 at the half before losing
to the San Diego Chargers 35-10 as a ten-point
underdog. The game went just under the
45.5-point posted total.
Let's take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED
pro football betting trends concerning
this matchup:
* OAKLAND has played 14 of its last 19
games under the total
* OAKLAND has played six unders in its
last nine home games
* OAKLAND has played three straight games
under the total
* HOUSTON has played five of its last
six road games over the total
* HOUSTON has played five of its eight
games over the total in 2007
These teams
played last season - a 23-14 Houston
victory in Oakland that went over the
35.5-point total, and in fact was the
only "over" for the Raiders in
a 12-game stretch last year.
Houston's
games have averaged 48.5 points per game
(22.4 PF, 26.1 PA), while Oakland's games
average 40.2 (19.3 PF, 21.9 PA). That
would seem to point this to the "over." But
there is a lot more to it than that.
Houston has spent a great deal of its
season battling injuries on the offensive
side. Pro Bowl wide receiver Andre Johnson's
knee injury has kept him out of action
since early in the year; rookie wideout
Jacoby Jones, who looked great in training
camp, has battled a shoulder injury, and
running back Ahman Green has been hampered
by a bad knee. Quarterback Matt Schaub,
who was over 70% completions at one time,
has suffered injuries to his ankle, hip,
thigh and back, and received a head injury
in Sunday's game that could keep him out
of action for the Oakland trip. Sage Rosenfels
would take his place; even though Rosenfels
has been intercepted five times in the
last two games in a backup role, I'm not
sure his insertion will make a difference
in the analysis of the total. But the absence
of other players does.
Oakland started off the season with four
overs, but has played three games under
the total since then. Daunte Culpepper
led a 35-point eruption against the Dolphins
in his first start, and scored three TD's
himself, but has led this team to 14, 10
and nine points in the last three games.
Against the Titans he was 15-for-32 for
just 167 yards. But at this point, coach
Lane Kiffin is not giving serious consideration
to going back to Josh McCown or using JeMarcus
Russell, and Andrew Walter is nothing more
than an afterthought. The Raiders have
not scored a touchdown on their opening
drive in the last 32 games. Houston has
given up 37, 38 and 35 points in its last
three games, as almost everything has gone
wrong. The Texans have turned the ball
over 11 times in the last two contests.
Statistically speaking, neither of these
defenses has done a very good job against
the run. Houston surrenders 4.6 yards a
carry, while Oakland yields a whopping
5.3 yards an attempt. It can't be said,
however, that either side is executing
their running game with a lot of consistency.
Oakland was listed among the NFL's best
rushing teams, mostly on the basis of a
299-yard performance against the Miami
Dolphins. But since then, the Raiders have
rushed for just 200 yards in their last
three games. Lamont Jordan has rushed for
just 87 on 41 carries in that period. And
Dominick Rhodes, the former Texan acquired
in the off-season, simply isn't being used
in the backfield. Houston had 115 rushing
yards against the Chargers, mostly in garbage
time. But the Texans generated only 58
yards a game in their previous three.
Speaking
of "garbage time," I'm
sure that what Tennessee thought it was
when it held a 32-7 lead in the fourth
quarter two weeks ago, and before Houston
miraculously got back in the game. But
I don't think those kind of points are
as likely to happen in game that will be
played closer to the vest. At this point,
Houston coach Gary Kubiak has to be very
concerned about coughing the ball up, as
his team leads the league with 23 turnovers.
So I would look for a more conservative
game plan than usual. And if his team doesn't
put forth a more intense effort on defense
after the embarrassment in San Diego, then
Kubiak doesn't deserve to keep his job.
Oakland's defense has actually improved,
holding Vince Young to just 42 yards passing
last Sunday. And Houston's defense actually
gave up just 237 yards against San Diego.
Offensive ineptitude will prevail. I look
for the Oakland-Houston game to go under
the 42-point total that is posted in the
BetUS NFL football betting odds.
Free Pick: JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 42 ** (Graded
on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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