Posted
on 10/24/2007 9:53:11 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting:
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans,
off a very close call in Houston, return
home to Nashville this Sunday to take on
the Oakland Raiders, in a game scheduled
for 1 PM ET on the grass at LP Field. The
Titans are listed at -7 in the BetUS NFL
football betting odds, with the total posted
at 41.5 points.
BetUS
NFL football betting odds: Tennessee
-7, Total: 41.5
NOTABLE STAT: Tennessee
19 ppg when Vince Young starts
KEY NFL FOOTBALL
BETTING TREND: Tennessee five unders in six
games this season
Let's take a look
at what that over/under figure presents to
us:
First, a glance at
some of the TOTALS-RELATED NFL betting stats
and trends relevant to the two teams:
* OAKLAND has played
four of its six games over the total in 2007
* OAKLAND has played
13 of its last 18 games under the total
* OAKLAND has played
seven of its last nine road games under the
total
* OAKLAND and TENNESSEE
have played over the total in four of their
last five meetings
* TENNESSEE has played
five of its six games under the total in
2007
Last Sunday Oakland
scored 10 points in the second half but it
wasn't enough to beat the Kansas City Chiefs,
who wound up winning a 12-10 decision as
a 1.5-point underdog. The game obviously
went below the 38-point posted total. Tennessee
took a 32-7 lead into the fourth period against
the Houston Texans and actually fell behind
36-35 before kicking a field goal at the
end to win 38-36 as a two-point dog. It was
kicker Rob Bironas' eighth field goal of
the game, setting a new NFL record.
Preliminary word
is that Vince Young, who sat out Sunday's
game with a quadriceps injury, is listed
as probable to play against Oakland. That
impacts our evaluation of the total. From
the standpoint of yards and points, Collins,
who completed 25 of 42 passes for 280 yards
on Sunday, has the potential to produce more
numbers for the Titans' offense. However,
there is a trade-off with Collins, who has
a tendency to make more mistakes, bigger
mistakes, and does not really possess the
ability to make good plays out of broken
plays the way Young does.
But Tennessee does
play a more conservative game with Young
in the lineup. He is not a polished passer
yet, ranking 27th in the league with 703
passing yards. And his 6.2 yards per attempt
is way down the list. In games where Young
started, Tennessee's games have averaged
33 points a contest.
Despite folding during
the fourth quarter against Houston, the Titans
defense has proven to be capable, as it is
currently ranked #6 in the NFL in yards allowed
per game.
The Raiders' defense
has been disappointing, ranking close to
the bottom of the league, although it has
crept up a bit recently. Still, this is a
comedown from last season, when this unit
was so proficient that if there was even
a presentable offensive attack, Oakland may
have been a wildcard contender.
Speaking of offense,
early on, Oakland showed some improvement
there, especially in the running game. After
making his first QB start, in which he only
completed five passes but scored three TD's
on the ground himself against the NFL's worst
defense, Daunte Culpepper has led his team
to just three TD's and 24 total points in
his two starts since. And the ground attack
has dried up, with only 108 total yards the
last two weeks.
Even though Collins
led the Titans on ten different drives against
Houston where they scored points, remember
that on eight of those drives they stalled
and had to settle for the field goal. Tennessee
has scored only nine TD's in 26 trips inside
the red zone, ranking them 27th in the league
in terms of percentage. Oakland has scored
nine TD's in the red zone, but they've only
gotten there 16 times, less than all but
four teams.
I am looking for
a game that will probably be dominated by
defense and the rushing game, and between
offenses that are not exactly functioning
at their highest level. That points to an "under."
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER
41.5 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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