Posted
on 10/26/2007 3:10:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting: Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
NOTABLE
STAT: Green Bay's pass-run ratio is 2-to-1 (247-121)
KEY
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Denver has played 10 of its last 11 over the total
BetUS
NFL betting odds: Denver -3, Total: 42
The Green Bay Packers (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS)
come back from a week of rest and travel
to Invesco Field in Denver (grass) to take
on the Denver Broncos (3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS)
in the Monday night matchup, beginning
at 8:30 PM ET. In the BetUS NFL football
betting odds, Denver is listed at -3, with
the betting total set at 42 points.
Jay Cutler, the quarterback for the Broncos,
showed some progress last Sunday night,
completing 22 of 27 passes for three touchdowns.
The Broncos beat the Steelers 31-28, covering
as a 4.5-point home underdog. Unfortunately
he will be without one of his best receivers
again as Jevon Walker, the former Packer,
is out with an injury. Denver's defense
hasn't been very strong this season, as
the team has allowed 27.3 ppg. Oddly, though,
the Broncos have outgained opponents by
17.5 yards a contest. The running attack,
especially if Travis Henry (549 yards)
can play (rib injury) should move against
the Green Bay defense. The Broncos are
51% on third downs this season. And Denver
won't miss many scoring opportunities at
home with placekicker Jason Elam (10 of
13), who makes a lot of clutch field goals.
Let's take a quick look at some NFL football
betting trends that are relative to this
matchup:
* GREEN BAY is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
* GREEN BAY is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10
games
* GREEN BAY has covered six of its last
nine games as a road dog
* GREEN BAY is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six
road games
* GREEN BAY has played four of its last
five games over the total
* DENVER is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 as
a home favorite
* DENVER is 15-4 ATS in Game 7
* DENVER is 1-9 ATS at home before playing
back-to-back road games
* DENVER has played 10 of its last 11
games over the total
Green Bay is averaging 23.7 points a game,
even though it has very little running
game to speak of. Anchored almost completely
by rookies, the Packer backfield has gained
less than 66 yards a game on 3.3 yards
a carry. So even though Denver has been
giving up over five yards a rushing attempt,
the run game probably won't do much more
than provide a bit of balance for the offense.
All this means more footballs flying through
the air from Brett Favre, who has thrown
247 passes for 1715 yards.
Both defenses
have a little bit of "give," and
they will. Denver has now played 10 overs
in its last 11 games, and a Favre-led Green
Bay is always a candidate for a donnybrook.
So we are looking "over" 42 points
(the posted betting total at BetUS) in
this one.
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 42 ** (Graded on a scale
of 1-4 stars)
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