Posted
on 10/25/2007 11:03:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
The Detroit Lions (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS), who erupted with a 34-point fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) when these two teams met earlier in the season, visit Soldier Field on Sunday at 1 PM ET for the first rematch of the NFL season. In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, Chicago is listed at -5.5, with the total posted at 44 points.
BetUS
NFL football betting odds: Chicago
-5.5, Total: 44
NOTABLE
STAT: Detroit has been outscored
90-24 in its last two road games
KEY
NFL BETTING TREND: Detroit is 3-8 ATS
in its last 11 road games
It is huge revenge for the Bears, who were
ahead 13-3 against Detroit before the roof
fell in. That was the first start at quarterback
for Brian Griese, who threw three interceptions
in the game. Since then, however, Griese
has won the confidence of his teammates,
leading the team to road wins over Green
Bay and Philadelphia. Last Sunday against
the Eagles he was 27-41 for 322 yards and
a touchdown, without any pickoffs.
Lions quarterback Jon Kitna had stated before
the season that his team would win 10 games,
and Detroit is on a pace to do just that,
with four wins in its first six games. But
something tells you they're just not complete
enough to take this all the way to the finish.
Detroit did get a productive day out of running
back Kevin Jones against Tampa Bay (76 yards)
with led to a balanced attack (147 yards
both rushing and passing), but that was an
anomaly. And the Lions were lucky to get
out of that home game with a win, as Jeff
Garcia made a couple of costly fumbles to
kill drives for the Bucs. They had the ball
for only 24 minutes in the entire game.
Let's take a quick look at some NFL betting
trends that impact on this matchup:
* DETROIT is 8-44 SU on the road since 2001
* DETROIT has covered three of its last
11 road games
* DETROIT has covered the last two against
Chicago, but was 0-3-1 ATS previous to that
* CHICAGO is 0-3 ATS at home this year,
but was 11-5 ATS the previous two years
* Four of the last five meetings between
these two have gone over the total
* CHICAGO has played four of their last
five games over the total, as well as 20
of their last 29
It is true that the Bears' defense isn't
as menacing as it has been in the recent
past, but this team still has athletes that
can rush the quarterback, and Kitna has been
sacked 28 times already, which puts him on
pace to surpass last season's bloated figure
of 63 sacks. The key for the Bears is whether
they can turn around the turnover story.
As mentioned, Griese tossed three INT's against
Detroit the first time around; Kitna went
without an interception in that game. In
road games, Kitna has thrown 5 TD's and five
INT's and has been sacked 18 times. Griese
has not been mistake-free (6 INT's) but is
now starting to find a new outlet in tight
end Greg Olson (four catches for 48 yards
last week), who is an All-Pro in the making.
Chicago was burned a couple of weeks ago
by a 224-yard rushing performance fromMinnesota's
Adrian Peterson. Detroit doesn't really have
anyone of that level in its backfield. The
Bears got a big emotional uplift with the
win in Philadelphia, and we have little faith
in Detroit, which has won just eight of its
last 52 on the road, until it can beat a
quality foe as the visitor. Indeed, the Lions
were smacked around by both the Eagles (56-21)
and Redskins (34-3). That having been said,
we'll lay the points with a motivated Chicago
bunch, the 5.5-point favorite in the BetUS
NFL football betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: CHICAGO ** (Graded on a scale
of 1-4 stars)
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