Posted
on 10/26/2007 8:05:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Football Wagering: NFL Free Picks
David Carr
was chosen to start over Vinny Testaverde,
but does it really matter? The Panthers
have limped through six games to a decent
record and have benefited whoever was
crazy enough to side with them in the
betting community. They are an astounding
4-2 ATS (and I say ‘astounding’ because
this team is admittedly terrible).
Indianapolis Colts (6-0) vs. Carolina
Panthers (4-2)
Sunday, October 28th --- Bank of America
Stadium, Charlotte --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Indianapolis -6 (44)
The Colts have been owning teams since
they were scared by the Titans and Texans.
They have controlled the clock with immaculate
care while pounding between the tackles
with Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith. They
average 141.8 yards per game and the Carolina
defense gives up 110.3 yards on the ground.
With Bob Sanders, this defense is completely
different. They are lethal against the
run, and the pressure he creates in the
secondary causes turnovers. Steve Smith
and the Carolina passing game only gain
184.8 yards per game, and besides the fact
that Smith shows up in a big way against
big opponents, the Colts will man handle
the Panthers en route to a 7-0 record.
They are too disciplined under Dungy to
look past the Panthers towards their Week
9 matchup against the Patriots.
NFL Free Pick:: Indianapolis 28 Carolina
13
Detroit Lions (4-2) vs. Chicago Bears
(3-4)
Sunday, October 28th --- Soldier Field,
Chicago --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Chicago -4.5 (43.5)
I hate it when two yo-yo teams face each
other. The Lions and Bears (oh my!) have
been flip-flopping between wins and losses,
but both won their matchups this past weekend.
Making matters worse for those of you that
keep your eyes on betting trends, Detroit
has lost their last two games on the road
and Chicago has lost their last two home
games.
This goes without mentioning that Chicago
got pummeled by Detroit on the road 37-27
in their matchup in Week 5. Making matters
worse for this patch-work Bears defense
is the apparent resurgence of running-back
Kevin Jones who ran for 76 yards against
a good Tampa defense. His yard per carry
average has steadily improved over the
last few games. Right now, he gets 4.3
yards per carry and Chicago gives up 132.6
yards per game.
Detroit is
a curious team, but they play well against
a team that uses the cover-2 defense,
and despite Chicago’s phenomenal
(and I say phenomenal because it was Brian
Griese) game-winning drive last week you
have to remember it was against Philadelphia,
a team that has no finish. This game will
be won on the ground and Kevin Jones is
playing at a far higher level than Cedric
Benson.
NFL Free Pick: Detroit 24 Chicago 20
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) vs. Cincinnati
Bengals(2-4)
Sunday, October 28th --- Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Pittsburgh -1 (48.5)
Pittsburgh owns this matchup, but that
was with Bill Cower at the helm. They are
7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the
Bengals but they are coming off a disastrous
loss to the abysmal Denver Broncos. The
Bengals engineered a masterful second-half
last week against the Jets who melted down
faster than Ryan Leaf on a father-son vacation.
The Bengals are 2-3-1 ATS and are getting
outscored by opponents by 3.8 points per
game. Their defense is simply terrible,
although it proved opportunistic against
Chad Pennington who was picked off for
an icing pick-six. Not to mention that
Pittsburgh averages 159.0 rushing yards
per game and Cincinnati gives up a depressing
135.5 yards on the ground.
This Steelers team knows Carson Palmer
and Troy Polamalu loves to play against
him. The Steelers can control the clock
with the running game and keep Carson and
his 273.7 passing yards per game on the
sidelines as they Steelers bust up the
Bengals to reinforce the trust of their
betting faithful as the third best team
in the league.
NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati
17
Oakland Raiders (2-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
(4-2)
Sunday, October 28th --- LP Field, Nashville
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Tennessee -7 (41.5)
What happened
to Oakland’s defense?
This high-impact secondary helped rank
the Raiders as a top-10 defense last season
but this year they are getting chewed up
on the ground for 141.7 yards and 171.8
yards through the air. They are 2-4 SU
and ATS this season, and the Oakland offense
is having trouble moving the ball.
It turns out the thrashing of the Miami
Dolphins at the hands of Daunte Culpepper
had more to do with the fact that Miami
stinks outright than it did with the offense
in Oakland. After ranking in the top-10
in a few key offensive categories, they
have fallen back to Earth. They are 20th
in the league in total yards per game and
14th in the league with 21.0 points per
game.
The Titans are a good team and are getting
Vince Young back this week after Kerry
Collins and Sage Rosenfels put on a shootout
last weekend. Never bet against Vince Young.
He always does something to blow the spread
apart, and Daunte Culpepper can get taken
advantage of by this defense. Oakland is
predicated on establishing the run, and
the Titans only give up 59.7 yards per
game. The Titans betting faithful should
stand by Tennessee.
NFL Free Pick: Oakland 13 Tennessee 24
Cleveland Browns (3-3) vs. St. Louis Rams
(0-7)
Sunday, October 28th --- Edward Jones
Dome, St. Louis --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Cleveland -3 (44)
Cleveland scores 27.8 points per game,
Derek Anderson has reacted in a big way
to having Brady Quinn looming in the background
and the Browns are 4-2 ATS. So why the
tight line against a St. Louis Rams team
that is winless this season and get embarrassed
by the unsexy Seahawks last weekend? Two
words: Steven Jackson.
The Rams
are a completely different football team
if Steven Jackson is on the field. Despite
the woes on the offensive line, teams
have to respect Jackson and that takes
pressure off of Marc Bulger who can really
shred the secondary if given time. Teams
have been pulling back guys in to the
secondary against Bulger because the
Rams have averaged a paltry 82.6 yards
per game. They won’t be able to do
that against the Rams with Jackson in the
backfield.
The Browns
may be without Jamal Lewis, which means
that unheralded Jason Wright will be
given the rock. Cleveland has averaged
354.5 yards per game behind Derek Anderson’s
surprising canon and the St. Louis defense
has been getting blown apart. It’s
important to remember the parity between
the AFC and the NFC when betting on this
matchup. The Browns have had some stiff
opponents and, while St. Louis will probably
show some offensive punch in this game,
they simply can not keep people off the
scoreboard. And the offensive line still
sucks, so Jackson may not be able to break
the defense apart like he normally can.
NFL Free Pick: Cleveland 27 St. Louis
Rams 20
New York Giants (5-2) vs. Miami Dolphins
(-7)
Sunday, October 28th --- Wembley Stadium,
London --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: NYG -9.5 (48.5)
Miami is
officially running second-stringers,
unless you count Marty Booker as a viable
receiving threat (which you shouldn’t).
Cleo Lemon, Jesse Chatman, Derek Hagan
and Tedd Ginn Jr. are going up against
a surprising and surging Giants team when
they ‘host’ New York in Wembley
Stadium. The Giants have risen to sixth
in the league in scoring with 26.7 per
game.
The Giants are also 5-2 ATS which explains
the near-double-digit spread. They have
absolutely decimated teams with weak offensive
lines behind Osi Umenyiora terrifying pass-rushing.
They have held teams 206.0 passing yards
and 97.4 ground yards while giving quarterbacks
absolute nightmares. The offensive line
for Miami is awful. Simply awful.
The Dolphins
showed some feistiness against a New
England defense that fell asleep in the
second-half last week. Whoop-dee-do.
Plaxico has all the measurables to expose
this secondary like Randy Moss did, and
the front-seven will get zero pressure
on Manning. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their
last five, and Eli has been a steady and
safe bet during that stretch. Take the ‘road
team’ in this one.
NFL Free Pick: NYG 28 Miami 13
Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) vs. Minnesota
Vikings (2-4)
Sunday, October 28th --- Metrodome, Minneapolis
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Philadelphia -1 (39.5)
This line simply astounds me. The Vikings
are the best against the run (76.5 yards
per game), the best with the run (163.7
yards per game) and have a ball-hawking
secondary that has 7 interceptions this
season. The Eagles are melting down right
before our very eyes, and allowing Brian
Griese to march all over your supposedly
feared defense is about as embarrassing
as it gets.
The Vikings
can control this game by unleashing Adrian
Peterson against the Eagles eighth ranked
rushing defense. Though Tavaris Jackson
won’t move the ball against
Philadelphia like Griese, the Vikings will
play it safe against Philly and hand the
ball to Peterson.
McNabb is a stronger quarterback, but
he can not escape the pass-rush like he
used to. The Vikings front-four will devour
the tattered and slow offensive line of
the Eagles, rushing McNabb in to mistakes.
This game will be tight, but the Eagles
have a major problem and have betrayed
their betting investors by going 2-4 ATS.
Andy Reid needs to take five dollars, go
down to the hardware store and buy some
finish, apply it generously to his team,
and then maybe you can feel safe betting
on these guys.
NFL Free Pick: Philadelphia 14 Minnesota
17
Buffalo Bills (2-4) vs. New York Jets
(1-6)
Sunday, October 28th --- Giants Stadium,
New York --- 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Line: NYJ -3 (36.5)
Speaking
of meltdown, ladies and gentleman, your
2007 New York Jets! News came down the
wire that Mangini is inexplicably sticking
with Chad Pennington in a move that generally
should be seen as “please fire me
now”. The Jets lost their last tilt
against the Bills 17-14.
The Bills
have been able to move the ball, but
are having a lot of trouble punching
the ball in to the endzone. Trent Edwards
is still a rookie at the end of the day,
and is adjusting to the pace of the NFL
on the fly. Buffalo’s Marshawn Lynch
continues his ROY campaign by spearheading
the rushing attack, which averages 99.0
yards per game.
The key to this game is the Bills athletic
and agile defense, which has shown a lot
of promise and grinded opposing offenses
in to dust. Their numbers do not impress
(they allow 302.5 yards per game and 22.0
points) but they can take advantage of
a Jets offense that can barely throw and
never runs.
The Jets are miserable and they are 1-5-1
ATS and are giving you no reason to put
money down on them. Bet on the 4-2 ATS
Buffalo Bills as Rian Lindell steals the
show.
NFL Free Pick: Buffalo 18 NYJ 14
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) vs. Tampa Bay
Buccaneers (4-3)
Sunday, October 28th --- Raymond James
Stadium, Tampa --- 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Tampa Bay -4.5 (33)
David Garrard
was steadily becoming a consistent threat
at quarterback, with zero turnovers,
leading a passing offense that currently
has 185.2 yards per game. Then he throws
a pick to Bob Sanders and now he’s
out for a month with an ankle injury.
Hello, Quinn Gray (whoever you are).
Goodbye, playoff chances.
Tampa Bay has gone 1-1 ATS and SU against
the AFC South after getting crushed by
Indy, then squeaking out a win against
the Titans. They are still a very good
football team though they only manage 314.9
yards per game. Jeff Garcia continues to
play mistake-free football. Do not be fooled
by the loss to Detroit. They were facing
Rod Marinelli, one of the coaches that
helped create the coveted Tampa-2 defense.
Jacksonville
was not that good with Garrard at quarterback.
They have no true number one receiver,
and Maurice Jones-Drew has been steady
but still can not control games. He can
pop huge runs, but he can’t
steadily move the chains. Earnest Graham
and Michael Bennett are a good 1-2 punch
for Tampa and should find room to run against
a rush defense that allows 103.8 yards
per game.
NFL Free Pick: Jacksonville 10 Tampa Bay
20
Houston Texans (3-4) vs. San Diego Chargers
(3-3)
Sunday, October 28th --- Qualcomm Stadium,
San Diego --- 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Line: San Diego (-11)
San Diego is getting ravaged by forest
fires and that will no doubt be in the
heads of the Chargers as they take the
field on Sunday. Either the Chargers will
draw strength from it, or will crumble
in the face of adversity. If the latter
happens, nobody will blame them. But it
makes this a tough game to call.
Sage Rosenfels steps to the helm for the
Texans after his four touchdown, three
interception fourth quarter explosion last
week. He will not have that same kind of
success against an overly aggressive and
terrifying San Diego front-seven led by
Shawne Merriman. The Chargers stifle opponents
to 84.5 rushing yards, but have been slightly
vulnerable through the air with 239.7 passing
yards allowed.
Houston will remain without Andre Johnson
for this game and will be without their
starting quarterback. Their starting tailback,
Ahman Green, is still licking a few wounds
but is expected to play. The safe bet is
on the Chargers, whom I feel will be inspired
to give the city of San Diego something
to cheer about after the catastrophe that
has engulfed this town. Take the emotionally
driven Chargers despite the big spread.
Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last six.
NFL Free Pick: Houston 14 San Diego 31
Washington Redskins (4-2) vs. New England
Patriots (7-0)
Sunday, October 28th --- Gillette Stadium,
Foxboro --- 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Line: New England -16.5 (50)
This Redskins team is much better than
people think. At 4-2 SU, they have been
rewarded for their efforts, but their betting
investors are getting justifiably annoyed
with their 2-2-2 ATS record. Washington
has been able to scamper to a solid 114.7
rushing yards average, and have stymied
opponents to 80.7 yards on the ground.
The secondary is also very opportunistic.
They have 11 turnovers on the season, and
eight of those are interceptions. And what
the hell am I talking about?! Does any
of this matter? These are the PATRIOTS
we are talking about. Even Joe Gibbs was
asking members of the press for suggestions
on how to beat this team.
The Patriots
are embarrassing teams right now, which
was evident when they ran a two-minute
drill against the Dolphins in the first
half with a 28 point lead. Disgusting.
They are crushing opponents by 22.7 points
per game and can kill you with the pass
or the run. Bet on the Patriots to hit
pay dirt by grinding the Washington run
defense in to the ground with Laurence
Maroney, who runs like he’s angry
at the world. Keep your money safe with
the undefeated Patriots.
NFL Free Pick:: Washington 13 New England
38
New Orleans (2-4) vs. San Francisco (2-4)
Sunday, October 28th --- Monster Stadium,
San Francisco --- 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Line: New Orleans -3 (41)
The Saints
are slowly getting themselves together
despite going 1-5 ATS this season. They
allowed the Atlanta Falcons, of all people,
to stage a fourth quarter, spread covering,
almost-comeback last week which was infuriating
to the betting investor. But the San
Francisco 49ers won’t
pose much of a threat.
The biggest
threat on the 49ers is Frank Gore, who
has been slowed this season because defenses
aren’t scared of the listless
and pathetic receiver set for the Niners.
San Fran manages a league worst 213.8 total
yards per game. Only 88.8 of those yards
are gained on the ground.
Still, the 49ers secondary comprised of
Walt Harris and Nate Clements is difficult
to throw against, so that means a lot of
balls being fed to Reggie Bush and the
rushing attack. The Saints have a much
more reasonable spread this week, and the
smart betting investor will take the Saints
as they ground and pound with the 49ers
to a decisive victory. Alex Smith or not,
the 49ers are a terrible football team.
NFL Free Pick: New Orleans 24 San Francisco
17
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