Posted
on 10/26/2007 3:10:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting: Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams
NOTABLE
STAT: Cleveland 4.9 yards per
rush allowed, but NO rushing touchdowns
for St. Louis
KEY
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Cleveland
six overs, no unders in 2007; St. Louis
six unders, one over this year
BetUS
NFL betting odds: Cleveland -4,
Total: 44.5
The Cleveland Browns (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS)
feel they have some positive momentum.
In fact, the only thing they want to guard
against is overconfidence as they travel
to St. Louis to play the Rams (0-7 SU,
1-6 ATS), who are still looking for their
first win of the 2007 season, in a game
that starts at 1 PM ET at the Edward Jones
Dome (artificial turf). In the BetUS NFL
football betting odds, Cleveland is listed
at -4, with a total posted at 44.5 points.
St. Louis is a disaster area, having been
destroyed by injuries. The two outstanding
veteran wide receivers, Torry Holt and
Isaac Bruce, are in the lineup, as is tight
end Randy McMichael, but the others who
help comprise the three and four-wide receiver
sets, like Drew Bennett and Dante Hall,
have been missing. If there is a bright
spot, it's that Steven Jackson, the running
back who gained 1528 yards last year, is
likely to come back to action after missing
four games, although it should be noted
that before going out of the lineup, he
had only averaged 3.4 yards a carry.
Part of the
reason is that the offensive line is
in tatters, having lost three starters.
Now center Brett Romberg has two badly
sprained ankles - "the maximum allowable
by God," in the words of St. Louis
Post-Dispatch sports columnist Jeff Gordon
- and may not play. St. Louis coach Scott
Linehan would have put Claude Terrell in
the lineup at guard, while shifting Andy
McCollum to center, but Terrell was arrested
for a domestic assault on Tuesday and has
since been released. We're looking at the
sixth different offensive line combination
in eight weeks as the Rams line up against
Cleveland.
Let's take a quick look at some NFL betting
trends that are relative to this matchup:
* CLEVELAND has played all of its six
games over the total in '07
* ST. LOUIS has played six of its seven
games under the total
* CLEVELAND has lost its last five road
games SU
* ST. LOUIS is 2-6 ATS in its last eight
home games
* ST. LOUIS has lost five of its last
six home games SU
* ST. LOUIS has played four of its last
six home games over the total
* CLEVELAND is 18-4 ATS in road games
where the total has been greater than 40
points
The Browns went into their bye week as
a team that considered itself very much
in the hunt for a wildcard spot. All of
a sudden this team has an offense (27.8
ppg), with Derek Anderson standing third
in the league with 14 touchdown passes.
His main targets, Braylon Edwards (29 catches,
552 yards, 7 TD's) and Kellen Winslow (29
catches, 506 yards) have been consistent
all year long. Jamal Lewis (382 rushing
yards, 5 TD's), who's had a bad foot, will
try to make post. He has been instrumental
in achieving the offensive balance Cleveland
did not get with Reuben Droughns in the
backfield last season.
Cleveland is ranked 32nd in the league
in defense, a tad surprising, considering
that head coach Romeo Crennel has his background
on the defensive side of the ball (was
coordinator for the Patriots previously).
The Browns have permitted 4.9 yards per
rushing attempt, which would appear inviting
for Jackson but for the malfunctioning
offensive line, which also allowed QB Marc
Bulger to be sacked seven times in last
Sunday's 22-3 loss to Seattle. Bulger,
who has been hampered by rib injuries,
just isn't throwing well. He was 21-40
with three interceptions and two lost fumbles
against the Seahawks, and got involved
in a shouting match with Linehan on the
sidelines after one mistake in the red
zone. The Rams have failed to score a rushing
touchdown all season, and have turned the
ball over 23 times. That is completely
antithetical to the policy Linehan came
into his head coaching job with.
On top of everything else, McMichael has
gone public in guaranteeing a St. Louis
win. That is interesting, since what Crennel
has been stressing with his team is not
to get too overconfident, and remember
when they became complacent in traveling
to Oakland - a game his Browns perhaps
should have won but lost by a 26-24 count.
Cleveland does have something of an obstacle
to overcome, as the team has not won two
games in a row since the 2003 season.
I'm not that
comfortable in laying points with Cleveland
in this road situation, and under no
circumstances are the Rams a team that
can be recommended. They have provided
a textbook example of how valuable the
offensive line is, by way of seeing what
catastrophe widespread injuries can cause.
Bulger is not being Bulger right now,
and it doesn't look as if he'll emerge
again all of a sudden. Consequently, I
don't think the Rams can exploit Cleveland's
weaknesses on defenses to their fullest,
since they are not able to utilize Holt
or Bruce properly. But there is encouragement
on the defensive side for St. Louis. Seattle
really didn't do a whole lot on offense
last week, and there has been no running
back to rush for 100 yards against the
Rams thus far. Yielding just 552 combined
yards in the last two games isn't bad.
Without a strong case for either team here,
we will opt for the "under," and
look for the Browns to slow up a bit on
the road, in switching playing surfaces,
and with Lewis less than 100%.
JAY'S FREE PICK:
UNDER 44.5 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4
stars)
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