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Posted on 9/29/2007 8:29:08 PM
NFL Betting Free Picks - Oakland Raiders (+4) at Miami Dolphins (-4)
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The Miami Dolphins (0-3 SU, 0-1-2 ATS,
2-1 0/U) are off to a horrendous 0-3 start,
just as I predicted, and have more trouble
on their hands this week in the form of
the Oakland Raiders and their improved
offense and fairly stout defense.
The Dolphins
are ranked a surprising 14th in the league
in offense (7th passing) but have watched
their usually, top-10 defense, fall all
the way to 20th in the league, including
a dismal 29th against the run. Miami’s
27th-ranked rushing offense is also a
huge problem that needs to be addressed
immediately.
The Oakland
Raiders (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U) won
their first game of the regular season
last week, beating the Cleveland Browns
26-24, thanks to an improved offense
that now ranks 15th in the league, including
the team’s third-ranked rushing attack.
Oakland is experiencing similar problems
on defense, where they have fallen from
third in the league last season in total
yards allowed to a defense that is now
ranked 27th overall (25 pass, 22 run).
Here is a
look at tonight’s key
trends followed by my Free NFL Betting
Picks:
Key Raiders Trends
The Raiders are 34-6-1 ATS in their last
41 games after accumulating more than 150
yards rushing in their previous game.
The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last
five games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
The Raiders are 42-13-2 ATS in their last
57 games after allowing less than 90 yards
rushing in their previous game.
Key Dolphins Trends
The Dolphins are 8-2-1 ATS in their last
eleven games after allowing more than 30
points in their previous game.
The Dolphins are 4-9-1 ATS in their last
14 games on Grass.
The Dolphins are 3-7-2 ATS in their last
12 games following a S.U. loss.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 7-1 in Raiders last eight
games in Week Four.
The Under is 6-1 in Raiders last seven
games as a road underdog.
The Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last four
home games vs. a team with a losing road
record.
The Under is 43-10-1 in Dolphins last
54 games after allowing less than 150 yards
passing in their previous game.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last
eight meetings.
The Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last
seven meetings.
Analysis:
This matchup, between two of the most
storied franchises in AFC history, is
a far cry from the days of Bob Griese
against Ken Stabler, but at least both
teams are fairly evenly matched in mediocrity
now. As a lifelong Dolphins follower, I
would love to say this is a game the ‘Fins
are going to win and cover, but I just
don’t see it happening here. Take
the Raiders to cover the spread and likely
win this game outright.
NFL Free Picks: Raiders 28 Dolphins 27
01:00 PM EST NFL Odds
Oakland Raiders
+3½ -110
Miami Dolphins
-3½ -110
Over 41½ -110
Under 41½ -110
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