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Posted on 10/5/2007 5:28:42 PM
NFL Betting Free Picks - Jacksonville Jaguars (-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (+2)
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The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1 SU, 1-2
ATS, 1-2 O/U) are 2-1 after three games,
largely because of the team’s fourth-ranked
overall defense which allows its opponents
to gain just 287.7 yards per game. While
Jacksonville is only ranked 20th in overall
offense, they are ranked 13th in the league
in rushing and have used their stellar
defense and a ball-control offense to come
out on top twice in three tries.
The Kansas
City Chiefs (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 1-3-0
/U) have won two straight games after
opening the season 0-2. The Chiefs enter
this matchup coming off a solid 30-16
thrashing of the San Diego Chargers and
have compiled the league’s third-best
defense. Offensively, the Chiefs have struggled
at times, posting the league’s 27th
overall offense.
Here is a
look at tonight’s key
trends followed by my Free NFL Betting
Picks:
Key Jaguars Trends
The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last
eight games after accumulating more than
150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last
ten games after accumulating less than
150 yards passing in their previous game.
The Jaguars are 35-17-2 ATS in their last
54 games after allowing less than 90 yards
rushing in their previous game.
Key Chiefs Trends
The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight
home games vs. a team with a winning road
record.
The Chiefs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last
eight games as a home underdog.
The Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last
seven games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games
after accumulating more than 150 yards
rushing in their previous game.
The Over is 5-0 in Jaguars last five games
in Week Five.
The Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last five games
in Week Five.
The Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last six games
as an underdog.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
No trends available.
Analysis:
I’m a bit surprised that
the Jacksonville Jaguars are favored here
on the road. The fact of the matter is
that each team in this contest has been
very solid defensively and equally inconsistent
on offense. Arrowhead Stadium is one of
the toughest places in the league to win
a road game and I don’t think the
Jaguars have the offense to get the job
done. Take the underdog Chiefs to cover
and win outright at home.
NFL Free Picks: Chiefs 17 Jaguars 14
01:00 PM EST NFL Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars -2 -110
Kansas City Chiefs +2 -110
Under 36 -110
Over 36 -110
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