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Posted on 10/5/2007 10:08:53 PM
Sunday Night Football
NFL Betting - Chicago
Bears (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
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Not even the most clairvoyant prognosticator
of NFL wagering could have glimpsed the
radical early season shakeup in the NFC
North. The Bears were far and away the
favorite to repeat as division champs while
the Packers remained a young team with
a fading future Hall of Fame quarterback
whose best days were behind him. Green
Bay has surprised big time and sits atop
the division with a 4-0 mark while owning
the league’s longest winning streak
at eight games dating back to last season.
In stark juxtaposition, the Bears have
endured an emergency quarterback switch
(kudos to Lovie Smith for having the guts
to pull the plug on Grossman) and suffered
a horrible rash of injuries to their celebrated
defense. The Week 5 line has the Packers
favored by (-3 ½) at Lambeau Field
against a wounded and desperate Chicago
Bears team.
Quarterback
Brett Favre is off to one of his best
starts since his last MVP season and
there’s no hiding the fact that
the Packers are leaning heavily on the
38-year-old signal caller who leads the
league’s 2nd ranked passing attack.
Favre tops the league with 170 pass attempts
and 112 completions but the most impressive
stat is the fact he has avoided throwing
an interception in his last 119 attempts.
The Packers will scheme to attack a depleted
Chicago Bears secondary that was missing
all four of its initial starters last week.
Corner Charles Tillman may return but the
Bears will likely have to rely on rookie
Trumaine McBride, Ricky Manning Jr. and
Danieal Manning to match up against the
Packers dangerous receivers. Donald Driver
and Greg Jennings are explosive after the
catch and the Packers will use a variety
of quick slants and crossing patterns to
try to catch the Bears secondary flatfooted.
Rookie James
Jones has emerged as another receiving
threat with 18 receptions and a touchdown
on the season. The Bears defense could
also be missing linebacker Lance Briggs
for the second straight week. The Packers
offensive line, in particular tackles
Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton, will face
a stiff challenge in blocking Bears’ defensive
ends Mark Anderson and Adewale Ogunleye
(last week both players had multiple sack
games).
There’s a reason why the Packers
are throwing the ball on 68 percent of
their offensive downs – it’s
because they are struggling badly to run
the ball - where they rank dead last in
the league averaging 54.3 yards a game
and 2.7 yards a carry. Hard to say which
Packer back will get stopped in his tracks
this week, but even a dinged Tommy Harris
will force Green Bay to run outside the
tackles where linebacker Brian Urlacher
will clean up the trash.
The Bears
offense has been pitiful so far this
season producing more turnovers than
touchdowns - thirteen in 52 possessions
if you’re counting. Brian Griese
showed some positive signs last week throwing
for 286 yards and a pair of touchdowns,
but he also contributed three costly picks.
Coach Lovie Smith’s plan is to get
dangerous, return man Devin Hester and
rookie tight end Greg Olsen more involved
in an effort to spark the offense.
Adding to
their offensive woes, the Bears have
not been able to run the ball – something
they could rely on last season. As a team
they rank 27th in the league averaging
82.8 yards a game and 3.3 yards a carry.
Cedric Benson is not establishing himself
as the premier back they hoped and is having
trouble holding on to the football.
The Packers defense is an active unit
that has improved tremendously over the
last couple years. Linebacker Nick Barnett
is leading by example and safety Atari
Bigby has helped solidify the secondary
and in run support. The Packers defense
will try to rattle Griese by blitzing from
the secondary and with pressure from ends
Aaron Kampman, Cullen Jenkins and Kabeer
Gbaja Biamila.
The Bears
have won four of the last six meetings
between these teams, including three
straight at Lambeau Field, but the Packers
are a rejuvenated team so far this season.
Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last four
games after accumulating more than 250
yards passing – while Brett Favre
is on pace to throw for 32 touchdowns and
4,820 yards.
NFL BETTING FREE PICK:
GIVE THE BEARS THE -3.5
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